The Celeri Journal #8: The Morning After

Written by Michael

On February 12, 2020

Take 3

LinkedIn ran a fascinating piece yesterday – and, yes, I’m quoting this social-media platform as a news source here – belaboring the point small businesses are struggling to find the right talent to hire. You know what they say in Santiago: “Es una problema.” You bet.

Among all the problems central bankers have faced since Lehman, finding the formula to stoke wage increases has been the most vexing dilemma. Tripling equity prices? Not a problem. Soaring real estate values? Easy. Getting a raise? Impossible. Tech plays – understatement alert here – a role; but the real driver is we’re running out of skilled workers with unemployment at generation lows.

Citadel’s Ken Griffin warned last week inflation may resurface in the US economy & no one – even the Federal Reserve – is prepared for it. If we see upticks in wages in the coming quarters, you’ll know why. Maybe this is a decent time to have that “talk” you keep putting off with your boss. Your employer may be more worried about that conversation than you.

If you run a small business, examine your options from a 360 perspective. Rates are cheap. Maybe borrowing makes sense. Maybe not. Rising wages for the 1st time in 15 years may be a sign tight labor market mean something.

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