The Celeri Journal

Our daily newsletter offers views on the global economy through the context of a small business owner, or student, looking to make sense of an ever-changing macro environment. The newsletter is not intended as financial or legal advice.

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The Celeri Journal #113: Morgan Stanley Cautions on Equities

The Celeri Journal #113: Morgan Stanley Cautions on Equities

Global Markets Recap Equities had a mighty strong finish Friday, and aside from a few meltdowns, they've been in a furious, epic rally since late March - one for the ages. Congress is open for business; markets love signs of generous fiscal spending after being...

The Celeri Journal #112: Who Got the PPP loans?

The Celeri Journal #112: Who Got the PPP loans?

Global Markets Recap Some wealthy businesses and people got Payroll Protection Program dollars while many honest-to-goodness, legitimate mom-&-pop shops were shut out, NBC News reports. "Billionaire property developer Joe Farrell, a prominent fundraiser, received up...

The Celeri Journal #111: Buffett Likes Natty Gas

The Celeri Journal #111: Buffett Likes Natty Gas

Global Markets Recap Back to work after a long weekend. Stocks are screaming higher as valuations are so cheap even Warren Buffett found something to buy, scooping up Dominion Energy assets for a cool 10 billion. They produce natural gas. Mr. Buffett still has respect...

The Celeri Journal #110: The Fed – Wall Street Paradox

The Celeri Journal #110: The Fed – Wall Street Paradox

Global Markets Recap Read a story about how the S&P had its best 2-month rally ever at a time when big Wall Street banks are tightening credit standards like never before. Seems paradoxical. Banks have 2 central mandates: make money for shareholders & follow...

The Celeri Journal #109: Record Stock Highs…Coming Soon

The Celeri Journal #109: Record Stock Highs…Coming Soon

Global Markets Recap CNBC: "Record highs coming in the 2nd half of the year, says Marko Kolanovic of @JPMorgan." One of the most widely watched Wall Street analysts, Marko Kolanovic, is telling clients - or anyone who watches television - to look for all-time highs...

The Celeri Journal #108: Selling Vol

The Celeri Journal #108: Selling Vol

Global Markets Recap From ZeroHedge: "A 34 VIX signals 2-in-3 odds the market will be +/- 34% from here over the next one year. it also implies for the next month an average daily move of around 1.7%." - Goldman". Discuss. If you believe the Dow Jones will rally - or...

The Celeri Journal #107: Fed-Speak; Interpreted

The Celeri Journal #107: Fed-Speak; Interpreted

Global Markets Recap Since I'm conversant in "Fed-speak", I probably owe it to you to translate & decipher prepared remarks by Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell. Sidenote: since when did the Fed start doing Monday press confabs. Stay focused, Mike. Chair Powell:...

The Celeri Journal #106: Fed Bond Buying

The Celeri Journal #106: Fed Bond Buying

Global Markets Recap The Federal Reserve disclosed the list of 794 companies whose corporate bonds they bought including Apple, Verizon, Toyota (the U.S. division), and drugmaker AbbVie. Central bank skeptics - of which there are many - will ask: do FANG stocks &...

The Celeri Journal #105: Why Credit Card Rates are so High

The Celeri Journal #105: Why Credit Card Rates are so High

Global Markets Recap The Fed lends money to Wall Street banks at zero. Wall Street banks lend you money on credit cards at 24%. Discuss. Saw this article (see Comments) floating around on social media, and it's a good one. Key finding: "The other reason credit card...

The Celeri Journal #104: Look Who’s Back

The Celeri Journal #104: Look Who’s Back

Global Markets Recap Suddenly, we're where we started as infection rates are soaring, hospital beds are vanishing, local economies are closing & stocks are falling. Among some of the worst theories advanced in 2020 is the notion heat kills COVID-19. The data in...

The Celeri Journal #103: The Great Lending Paradox

The Celeri Journal #103: The Great Lending Paradox

Global Markets Recap The Wall Street Journal unveiled a somber report about the slowdown in corporate lending brought on by lingering effects of coronavirus. "One reason investors believe collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) are safer than the loans they hold is...

The Celeri Journal #102: Oil, Everywhere

The Celeri Journal #102: Oil, Everywhere

Global Markets Recap Of all the relatively crazy moves we've seen in financial markets this year - hello, stocks - perhaps no swings have been more mercurial than those in energy. Only a few weeks back, front-month WTI crude traded negative $12. Every business...

The Celeri Journal #101: The “Bubble” Bubble

The Celeri Journal #101: The “Bubble” Bubble

Global Markets Recap I've felt for a while the only bubble today in financial markets is that of wealthy hedge fund managers - short equities - claiming we're in an epic, historical bubble. As Michael Santoli brilliant reports for CNBC: "Critics love to invoke 1999 as...

The Celeri Journal #100: Not a Foot Past Gossage Grill

The Celeri Journal #100: Not a Foot Past Gossage Grill

Global Markets Recap MESTER: FED LEGALLY BARRED FROM EQUITY BUYING, DOESN'T SEE FED BUYING STOCKS Discuss. Let's examine this logic from a different perspective. COLLEGE STUDENT LEGALLY BARRED FROM BEER BUYING, DOESN'T SEE FRAT HOUSE BUYING KEGS It's not a tremendous...

The Celeri Journal #99: Main Street; Forgotten by the Fed

The Celeri Journal #99: Main Street; Forgotten by the Fed

Global Markets Recap The Federal Reserve has poured well over $5 trillion into the national economy due to COVID-19, yet some critics believe Wall Street is receiving an outsized proportion of those funds compared to Main Street. From Bloomberg: "The Federal Reserve...

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